real #unemployment 42.9%: the warren buffett economy #scprimary

As documented in Parts 1-3 (Part 1, Part 2, Part 3), the Fed has generated a $50 trillion financial bubble since Alan Greenspan took the helm in August 1987. After 27 years, honest price discovery has been destroyed, thereby reducing the nerve centers of capitalism—-the money and capital markets—-to little more than gambling casinos.

Accordingly, speculative rent-seeking in the financial arena has replaced enterprenurial innovation and supply side investment and productivity as the modus operandi of the US economy. This has resulted in a severe diminution of main street growth and a massive redistribution of windfall wealth to the tiny share of households which own most of the financial assets. Warren Buffett’s $73 billion net worth is the poster boy for this untoward state of affairs.

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The massive and systematic falsification of asset prices which lies at the heart of this deformation of capitalism is a direct and unavoidable consequence of monetary central planning. That is, the pursuit of Keynesian business cycle management and stimulus through central bank interest rate pegging and massive monetization of existing public debt and other securities—-especially since the latter has no purpose other than to artificially goose the price of bonds and lower their yields; and also via other indirect  methods of financial asset levitation such as the Greenspan/Bernanke/Yellen doctrine of wealth effects and the implicit central bank “put” which underpins the economics of buy-the-dip speculators.

As previously indicated, the Keynesian bathtub model of a closed, volumetrically driven economy is a throwback to specious theories about the inherent business cycle instabilities of market capitalism that originated during the Great Depression. These theories were wrong then, but utterly irrelevant in today’s globally open and technologically dynamic post-industrial economy.

As reviewed in Part 3, the very idea that 12 people sitting on the FOMC can adroitly manipulate an economic ether called “aggregate demand” by means of falsifying market interest rates is a bad joke when in it comes to that part of “potential GDP” comprised of goods production capacity. In today’s world of open trade and massive excess industrial capacity, the Fed can do exactly nothing to cause the domestic steel industry’s capacity utilization rate to be 90% or 65%.

It all depends upon the marginal cost of labor, capital and materials in the vastly oversized global steel market. Indeed, the only thing that the denizens of the monetary politburo can do about capacity utilization in any domestic industry is to re-read Keynes’s 1930 essay in favor of homespun goods and weep!

As I detailed in the Great Deformation, the Great Thinker actually came out for stringent protectionism and economic autarky six years before he published the General  Theory and for good and logical reasons that his contemporary followers choose to completely ignore. Namely, protectionism and autarky are an absolutely necessary correlate to state management of the business cycle and related efforts to improve upon the unguided results generated by business, labor and investors on the free market.  Indeed, Keynes took special care to make sure that his works were always translated into German, and averred that Nazi Germany was the ideal test bed for his economic remedies.

Eighty years on from Keynes’ incomprehensible ode to statist economics and thorough-going protectionism, the idea of state management of the business cycle in one country is even more preposterous. Potential labor supply is a function of the global labor cost curve and now comes in atomized form as hours, gigs, and temp agency contractual bits, not census bureau headcounts.

In fact, the Census Bureau survey takers and the BLS numbers crunchers have not the foggiest idea as to what the real world’s potential labor force computes to, and how much of it is deployed on any given day, month or quarter. Accordingly, printing money and pegging interest rates in pursuit of “full employment”, which is the essence of the Yellen version of monetary central planning, is completely nonsensical.

Likewise, the Fed’s current “soft” target of 5.2% on the U-3 unemployment rate is downright ridiculous. When in the year 2015 you have 93 million adults not in the labor force—-of which only half are retired and receiving social security benefits(OASI)—-and a U-3 computational method that counts as “employed” anyone who works only a few hour per week—-then what you have in the resulting fraction is noise, pure and simple. The U-3 unemployment rate as a proxy for full employment does not even make it as primitive grade school economics.

At the present time, there are 210 million adult Americans between the ages of 16 and 68—to take a plausible measure of the potential work force. That amounts to 420 billion potential labor hours, if we accept the convention that all adults are at least theoretically capable of holding a full-time job (2,000 hours/year) and pulling their share of society’s need for production and work effort.

By contrast, during 2014 only 240 billion hours were actually supplied to the US economy, according to the BLS estimates. Technically, therefore, there were 180 billion unemployed labor hours, meaning that the real unemployment rate was 42.9%, not 5.5%!

Yes, we have to allow for non-working wives, students, the disabled, early retirees and coupon clippers. We also have drifters, grifters, welfare cheats, bums and people between jobs, enrolled in training programs, on sabbaticals and much else.

But here’s the thing. There are dozens of reasons for 180 billion unemployed labor hours, but whether the Fed is monetizing $80 billion of public debt per month or not, and whether the money market interest rate is 10 bps or 35 bps doesn’t even make the top 25 reasons for unutilized adult labor. What actually drives our current 43% unemployment rate is global economic forces of cheap labor and new productive capacity throughout the EM and dozens of domestic policy and cultural factors that influence the decision to work or not.

To be sure, for a brief historical interval—-from roughly the New Economics of the Kennedy Administration to the 2007 eve of the housing crash and financial crisis—- the Fed did levitate the GDP and meaningfully impact the labor utilization rate. That was owing to the one-time trick of levering up the household and business sector through the inducements of cheap debt.

The Warren Buffett Economy——Why Its Days Are Numbered (Part 4)

 

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#trump: i’d ‘love’ to have #palin in my admin in an official capacity (#palin2016)

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump said he would “love” to have former Alaska Governor and GOP vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin in his campaign in an official capacity on Monday’s broadcast of “The Palin Update” on Mama Grizzly Radio.

Trump said of Palin being “along in some official capacity, “I’d love that.” He continued, “Because she really is somebody that knows what’s happening, and she’s a special person, she’s really a special person, and I think people know that. And she’s got a following that’s unbelievable. … Everybody loves her.”

He added that the other GOP candidates are “weak” and “ineffective,” and “the Sarah Palin kind of strength, you just don’t see very much of it anymore.”

(h/t Right Wing Watch)

TRUMP: I’D ‘LOVE’ TO HAVE PALIN IN MY ADMIN IN AN OFFICIAL CAPACITY

Donald Trump Would Consider Tapping Sarah Palin For Future Trump Administration

gov #palin featured speaker at cambridge union society

Highlights include a debate involving comedian, actor and activist Stephen Fry, American politician Sarah Palin, leader of feminist movement FEMEN Inna Shevchenko and journalist Jon Snow.

Celebrating its 200th anniversary, the Cambridge Union Society has today released its first termcard of 2015.

The major speakers confirmed so far include British comedian/presenter Stephen Fry, former vice-presidential candidate Sarah Palin, leader of the international feminist movement FEMEN Inna Shevchenko and Channel 4 News Presenter Jon Snow.

Reflecting on the varied fields of the revealed speakers, Amy Gregg, President of the Union for Lent 2015, commented: “I’m extremely pleased that we have begun our Bicentenary year with such a diverse range of prominent speakers. As ever, the Union strives to offer members the opportunity to engage with some of the world’s most significant and influential public figures.”

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Controversial American politician Sarah Palin will then speak on the 2nd of March. The first female Republican to be nominated for the Vice Presidency, during the 2008 Presidential election, Palin has more recently spent time as a political commentator for Fox News, and has starred in ‘Sarah Palin’s Alaska’, her own reality show. Her book, ‘Going Rogue’, has sold over two million copies.

On the 13th of March, journalist and Channel 4 news presenter Jon Snow will speak. A well-renowned journalist, Snow has received numerous awards for his work including five Royal Television Society Awards. Union members can expect to hear about a range of current topics in his talk – last year, Snow’s work involved a head-to-head with Russell Brand and ground reporting from the conflict in Gaza.

Other prominent speakers include composer Stephen Sondheim, who will appear via video-link, feminist author and theorist Germaine Greer and illustrator Sir Quentin Blake.

The Cambridge Student: The Union will also be celebrating its 200th anniversary with a series of bicentenary-themed events, including two debates and the Bicentenary Ball ‘A Night in History’

Cambridge Union Lent 2015 Magazine

obama the frightening disaster: US central command twitter & youtube accounts hacked by #isis

The Twitter account for U.S. Central Command has been hacked, and is carrying messages promoting the Islamic State — including one that says, “AMERICAN SOLDIERS, WE ARE COMING, WATCH YOUR BACK. ISIS.”

Another page shows what appears to be an image from a computer web cam in a military facility. An accompanying tweet says, “ISIS is already here, we are in your PCs, in each military base.”

Central Command officials say they are “aware” of the issue and are “addressing” it.

“This is bad,” one Central Command source told Fox News.

The Twitter account now carries an image identifying the page as “CyberCaliphate,” with a message that says, “I love you ISIS.”

The page has started posting screen shots of information about military commanders, including phone numbers and email addresses.

The same image at the top of the hacked Twitter page has also been emblazoned atop Central Command’s YouTube page.

Fox News:

gov #palin: “noticeable absence – man who promised in ’08 to restore america’s image…nominated for #nobelpeaceprize 2wks into this failed presidency”

After the atrocious attacks of September 11th, the world unified behind our great nation, stiffened its collective spine, and took a stand against Islamic terrorism. Following last week’s brutal attacks in Paris by Muslims with the same evil terroristic beliefs as the 9/11 savages, today the world came together again against the death cult that is the radical Islamic “faith.” The largest crowd in Paris’ history just proclaimed “Je Suis Charlie” as Germany’s Prime Minister locked arms with the President of France and marched the streets that her country had occupied generations ago. The heroic Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the King and Queen of Jordan, the UK’s Prime Minister, the President of Mali, the Palestinian President, and so many others all put differences aside to proclaim, “Enough is enough! Evil shall not triumph!”

There was one noticeable absence – the man who promised in 2008 to restore America’s image around the world…the man nominated for the Nobel Peace prize just two weeks into this failed Presidency…the man who would seek to destroy those who effectively question what he is doing to America and her allies. Where was President Obama? Or even, in his stead, Vice President Biden? Secretary Kerry? I’ve no idea what took precedence on our President’s schedule this weekend, but America was MIA as the rest of the civilized world unified against Islamic fundamentalism.

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I humbly dare speak for many concerned Americans tonight in asking, “Good God, Mr. President, we were once known as the leader of the free world, standing for what is right! You must not let America’s sacrifices be in vain. When will you learn that actions speak louder than your words?”

To the people of France, please know that we, the American people, stand with you in this fight against the insanity that is Islamic fundamentalism. Americans love our fellow man seeking peace, so we cry with you, “Je suis Charlie!”

There are more of us than there are of them. Barack Hussein Obama, do not give an inch to this evil.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/…/America-snubs-historic-Paris-r…

– Sarah Palin

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dec #jobsreport: record 55,807,000 women unemployed; labor participation rate 26yr Low

A record 55,807,000 women 16 years and older did not participate in the labor force in December, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). This means that 55,807,000 women in the United States did not have a job and did not actively seek one in the past four weeks.

The number of women not in the labor force increased from 55,195,000 in November to 55,807,000 in December, an increase of 612,000.

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The participation rate for women hit a record low for this year of 56.6 percent, which also matches the 56.6 percent seen in September 1988, a 26-year low. The labor force participation rate, as calculated by the BLS, is the percentage of this population that either has a job or actively sought one in the last four weeks.

The number of employed women decreased from 69,247,000 in November to 69,042,000 in December, a decline of 205,000. However, the number of unemployed women also declined from 4,195,000 in November to 3,878,000 in December, which means there were 317,000 less unemployed women in September.

The unemployment rate for women declined from 5.7 percent in November to 5.3 in December.

CNS News: Dec #JobsReport: Record 55,807,000 women unemployed; Labor Participation Rate 26yr

holy crap: 93 million adults not working or real unemployment is 37.3% @drudge @sarahpalinu

A record 92,898,000 Americans 16 years and older did not participate in the labor force last month, according to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The BLS defines people not in the work force as people 16 years and up who are not employed and haven’t “made specific efforts to find employment sometime during the 4-week period ending with the reference week.” The labor force participation rate — or the “The labor force as a percent of the civilian noninstitutional population” — also dipped back down to 62.7 percent, from 62.9 percent in November.

September also saw a labor force participation rate of 62.7 percent, however prior to then, the last time the rate hit 62.7 percent was in February of 1978.

While the level of labor force participation declined — due not only to potentially discouraged workers but also baby boomers hitting retirement age — the BLS reported Friday that in December the unemployment rate declined to 5.6 percent, payroll jobs increased by 252,000 but 456,000 dropped out in November.

“Today’s solid employment report caps off a strong year for the U.S. labor market, which achieved a number of important milestones in 2014,” Jason Furman, Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, said in a statement. “Total job growth last year was the strongest since 1999, while the unemployment rate fell at the fastest pace in three decades.”

“Although nominal wages fell in December, inflation-adjusted wages have generally been rising, and job growth has picked up in sectors that traditionally provide good, middle-class jobs,” he added.

House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) reacted to the labor news by touting the jobs bills the new Republican Congress have been pushing, including the Keystone pipeline.

“It’s always welcome news when more Americans find work,” he said. “Yet while the economy is showing some signs of improvement, far too many middle-class families are struggling to bridge the gap between rising costs and stubbornly flat paychecks.”

RECORD 92,898,000 AMERICANS NOT IN THE WORKFORCE