Donald Trump Rally, Fort Worth Texas – 1:00pm EST Live Stream…

Candidate Donald J Trump is holding a campaign rally today in Fort Worth, TX at the Fort Worth Convention Center.  The event begins at 12:00pm local 1:00pm Eastern Live Stream Link – Alternat…

Source: Donald Trump Rally, Fort Worth Texas – 1:00pm EST Live Stream…

real #unemployment 42.9%: the warren buffett economy #scprimary

Palin SMASH

As documented in Parts 1-3 (Part 1, Part 2, Part 3), the Fed has generated a $50 trillion financial bubble since Alan Greenspan took the helm in August 1987. After 27 years, honest price discovery has been destroyed, thereby reducing the nerve centers of capitalism—-the money and capital markets—-to little more than gambling casinos.

Accordingly, speculative rent-seeking in the financial arena has replaced enterprenurial innovation and supply side investment and productivity as the modus operandi of the US economy. This has resulted in a severe diminution of main street growth and a massive redistribution of windfall wealth to the tiny share of households which own most of the financial assets. Warren Buffett’s $73 billion net worth is the poster boy for this untoward state of affairs.

unemployment

The massive and systematic falsification of asset prices which lies at the heart of this deformation of capitalism is a direct and unavoidable consequence of monetary central planning. That is, the pursuit of…

View original post 833 more words

real #unemployment 42.9%: the warren buffett economy #scprimary

As documented in Parts 1-3 (Part 1, Part 2, Part 3), the Fed has generated a $50 trillion financial bubble since Alan Greenspan took the helm in August 1987. After 27 years, honest price discovery has been destroyed, thereby reducing the nerve centers of capitalism—-the money and capital markets—-to little more than gambling casinos.

Accordingly, speculative rent-seeking in the financial arena has replaced enterprenurial innovation and supply side investment and productivity as the modus operandi of the US economy. This has resulted in a severe diminution of main street growth and a massive redistribution of windfall wealth to the tiny share of households which own most of the financial assets. Warren Buffett’s $73 billion net worth is the poster boy for this untoward state of affairs.

unemployment

The massive and systematic falsification of asset prices which lies at the heart of this deformation of capitalism is a direct and unavoidable consequence of monetary central planning. That is, the pursuit of Keynesian business cycle management and stimulus through central bank interest rate pegging and massive monetization of existing public debt and other securities—-especially since the latter has no purpose other than to artificially goose the price of bonds and lower their yields; and also via other indirect  methods of financial asset levitation such as the Greenspan/Bernanke/Yellen doctrine of wealth effects and the implicit central bank “put” which underpins the economics of buy-the-dip speculators.

As previously indicated, the Keynesian bathtub model of a closed, volumetrically driven economy is a throwback to specious theories about the inherent business cycle instabilities of market capitalism that originated during the Great Depression. These theories were wrong then, but utterly irrelevant in today’s globally open and technologically dynamic post-industrial economy.

As reviewed in Part 3, the very idea that 12 people sitting on the FOMC can adroitly manipulate an economic ether called “aggregate demand” by means of falsifying market interest rates is a bad joke when in it comes to that part of “potential GDP” comprised of goods production capacity. In today’s world of open trade and massive excess industrial capacity, the Fed can do exactly nothing to cause the domestic steel industry’s capacity utilization rate to be 90% or 65%.

It all depends upon the marginal cost of labor, capital and materials in the vastly oversized global steel market. Indeed, the only thing that the denizens of the monetary politburo can do about capacity utilization in any domestic industry is to re-read Keynes’s 1930 essay in favor of homespun goods and weep!

As I detailed in the Great Deformation, the Great Thinker actually came out for stringent protectionism and economic autarky six years before he published the General  Theory and for good and logical reasons that his contemporary followers choose to completely ignore. Namely, protectionism and autarky are an absolutely necessary correlate to state management of the business cycle and related efforts to improve upon the unguided results generated by business, labor and investors on the free market.  Indeed, Keynes took special care to make sure that his works were always translated into German, and averred that Nazi Germany was the ideal test bed for his economic remedies.

Eighty years on from Keynes’ incomprehensible ode to statist economics and thorough-going protectionism, the idea of state management of the business cycle in one country is even more preposterous. Potential labor supply is a function of the global labor cost curve and now comes in atomized form as hours, gigs, and temp agency contractual bits, not census bureau headcounts.

In fact, the Census Bureau survey takers and the BLS numbers crunchers have not the foggiest idea as to what the real world’s potential labor force computes to, and how much of it is deployed on any given day, month or quarter. Accordingly, printing money and pegging interest rates in pursuit of “full employment”, which is the essence of the Yellen version of monetary central planning, is completely nonsensical.

Likewise, the Fed’s current “soft” target of 5.2% on the U-3 unemployment rate is downright ridiculous. When in the year 2015 you have 93 million adults not in the labor force—-of which only half are retired and receiving social security benefits(OASI)—-and a U-3 computational method that counts as “employed” anyone who works only a few hour per week—-then what you have in the resulting fraction is noise, pure and simple. The U-3 unemployment rate as a proxy for full employment does not even make it as primitive grade school economics.

At the present time, there are 210 million adult Americans between the ages of 16 and 68—to take a plausible measure of the potential work force. That amounts to 420 billion potential labor hours, if we accept the convention that all adults are at least theoretically capable of holding a full-time job (2,000 hours/year) and pulling their share of society’s need for production and work effort.

By contrast, during 2014 only 240 billion hours were actually supplied to the US economy, according to the BLS estimates. Technically, therefore, there were 180 billion unemployed labor hours, meaning that the real unemployment rate was 42.9%, not 5.5%!

Yes, we have to allow for non-working wives, students, the disabled, early retirees and coupon clippers. We also have drifters, grifters, welfare cheats, bums and people between jobs, enrolled in training programs, on sabbaticals and much else.

But here’s the thing. There are dozens of reasons for 180 billion unemployed labor hours, but whether the Fed is monetizing $80 billion of public debt per month or not, and whether the money market interest rate is 10 bps or 35 bps doesn’t even make the top 25 reasons for unutilized adult labor. What actually drives our current 43% unemployment rate is global economic forces of cheap labor and new productive capacity throughout the EM and dozens of domestic policy and cultural factors that influence the decision to work or not.

To be sure, for a brief historical interval—-from roughly the New Economics of the Kennedy Administration to the 2007 eve of the housing crash and financial crisis—- the Fed did levitate the GDP and meaningfully impact the labor utilization rate. That was owing to the one-time trick of levering up the household and business sector through the inducements of cheap debt.

The Warren Buffett Economy——Why Its Days Are Numbered (Part 4)

 

gov #palin: for president: who is best on national debt, the economy, jobs?

zzz

For President: who is best on national debt, the economy, jobs?

*Who’s the only candidate who hasn’t voted to add to our $19 trillion debt, and…

*hasn’t voted for Obama’s devastating fast-tracked TPP trade deal;

*is expert on national and international trade and economics, actually understanding our destructive, unbalanced trade deals that are struck as favors for the cause of crony capitalism;

*operates in the real world on balanced budgets instead of supporting annual unsustainable deficits, recklessly rolling along spending other people’s money;

*actually creates private sector jobs to secure the middle class instead of supporting bureaucratic agencies that chase our businesses out of country;

*hasn’t enticed illegal immigrants with taxpayers’ “free stuff” – and even their gifts of teddy bears and soccer balls – to illegally cross the border and take American jobs for corporate campaign donors’ cheap labor;

*inappropriately prioritized tax dollars that’s led to illegals receiving better care than our Vets;

*understands and supports Constitutional government and rule of law – which is abused by politicians supporting their exemption from laws they foist on you, including Obamacare; citizen’s tax laws; FOIA, disclosure, and privacy rules; etc.

*has self-funded months of his campaign to break donor class shackles that own other candidates;

*hasn’t lived off the government teat an entire career but, like you, has had to put up with an out-of-control government while working, building, employing, generously giving, and creating equal opportunity for families to reach their American dream?

*… and who’s unarguable record of success proves the will and ability to fight victoriously for our country, which will empower We the People to make America great again?

obama/hillary yr 8: 2015 sets us terror record

california4

Last year saw the most terrorist attacks and plots in the U.S. since Sept. 11, 2001, according to the Heritage Foundation’s tally, which was released Friday just as the Obama administration announced a series of new terror-related arrests and indictments.

The 13 “Islamist-inspired” attacks and plots uncovered in 2015 were more than the previous three years combined, according to Heritage researcher Riley Walters.

And 2016 is off to a bad start, with the Justice Department announcing separate terror-related indictments late Thursday of two Iraqi refugees. In Philadelphia, a man who opened fire on a police officer Thursday night proclaimed allegiance to the Islamic State terror group after he was taken.

The refugees were admitted to the U.S. under a program President Obama has insisted is safe, yet both now stand accused of actively trying to aid terrorists in Syria.

Republicans on Capitol Hill said the two refugee arrests should force Mr. Obama to rethink his plan to admit 10,000 Syrian refugees this year. The president’s top aides had held up the Iraqi program as proof that they could properly screen out would-be terrorists from the refugee population, and Mr. Obama had mocked Republicans for fearing “widows and orphans.”

Yet one of the Iraqi refugees, Omar Faraj Saeed Al Hardan, was admitted to the U.S. as a refugee while he was still a minor — a fact that Republicans said proved children could be just as dangerous when radicalized.

Mr. Al Hardan has been charged with trying to provide material support to the Islamic State.

The other man, Aws Mohammed Younis Al-Jayab, stands accused by prosecutors of having traveled to Syria to train with terrorists. According to an affidavit filed to support charges against him, he repeatedly bragged on social media of having executed Syrian security forces, and of knowing he was breaking U.S. law by visiting Syria and lying about it to U.S. immigration officials.

In both cases, authorities say they stopped the men before they conducted any plots in the U.S.

White House press secretary Josh Earnest called the indictments success stories saying they were “good examples of how the Department of Homeland Security, the intel community, our law enforcement and other national security agencies work effectively together to keep us safe.”

But lawmakers on Capitol Hill said the fact that the two men were admitted to the U.S. showed the holes in the president’s security plans.

“This is the kind of threat that keeps me up at night,” said House Homeland Security Committee Chairman Michael McCaul. The Texas Republican said he’d been secretly briefed on the cases before hand, and was now able to talk about them publicly — and said they were similar to other cases he’s not yet allowed to talk about.

On Sunday evening, the Philadelphia Police Department told reporters that they had received a tip that Edward Archer of Yeadon, the 30-year-old suspect in the attack on Officer Jesse Hartnett, “had an affiliation to a group with radical beliefs.”

The department fears that group may still pose a threat to other officers and the department continues Sunday to require officers to work in tandems or teams. The department is investigating the credibility of the information with the assistance of the FBI.

Officer Hartnett was struck three times in the arm by gunfire Thursday night after the man ran up to his police cruiser and opened fire in a dramatic ambush that was caught on a surveillance camera.

Officials said Mr. Archer fired 13 times — at one point with his arm all the way inside the police cruiser. Officer Hartnett was able to chase after the man, firing off several rounds that struck the suspect, and the man was later taken into custody by responding officers.

While investigators were probing whether Mr. Archer — who

Officials said Mr. Archer has a criminal record, including a gun offense and domestic violence, but the details of his ties to Islamism remained unclear Sunday. He declared his allegiance to the Islamic State on Thursday and reportedly said the attack was done “for Allah.”

“I know federal investigators will be promptly working to determine what, if any, connections the suspect had with overseas radical groups and whether there’s any indication of future attacks in the works,” said Rep. Patrick Meehan, Pennsylvania Republican. “It’s a grim reminder of the need for constant vigilance as we work to defeat the Islamic State worldwide.”

House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Ed Royce expressed similar concern.

“ISIS cannot be contained, it must be defeated,” the California Republican said. “To keep Americans safe from an increasingly sophisticated enemy, we need to eliminate sanctuaries and counter ISIS’s ability to recruit and radicalize on the Internet.”

2015 sets new record for terror plots in U.S.